Los Angeles–One week before the Thanksgiving holiday, Los Angeles County is reporting rising cases of COVID-19, increased circulation of new Omicron strains, and high transmission of other respiratory illnesses including the flu and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV. Reducing transmission of these viruses is helped by wearing a well-fitting high filtration mask and results in less disruptions and illness, which can protect our healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed.
The COVID-19 case rate is now over 100 new cases per 100,000 individuals– up from 86 cases per 100,000 one week ago. Indoor masking in all indoor public spaces is now highly recommended, in accordance with the LA County COVID Response Plan. The recommendation covers indoor spaces at schools, retail establishments, entertainment venues, public transit, correctional and detention facilities, and at homeless and emergency shelters. Masking continues to be required for people who have been exposed to COVID during the past 10 days,in healthcare settings and congregate care facilities,and anywhere where it is required by the site. For a more detailed review of masking guidance for LA County, please visit ph.lacounty.gov/acd/ncorona2019/masks/RulesAndRecommendations/.
Throughout the pandemic there has been mounting evidence that wearing a mask is an effective way to limit the spread of respiratory viruses. With the current case rate of 100 cases per 100,000 individuals, at a 200 person event, the probability that at least one person at the event is infected with COVID-19 is 45-60%. If the case rate continues to increase and reaches 150 cases per 100,000 individuals, this probability jumps to 60-75%.
The county is also seeing increased circulation of newly emerging COVID-19 strains BQ.1 and BQ.1.1. Combined, the two subvariants comprise 26% of sequenced specimens, surpassing the threshold for High Concern in the county’s Early Alert Signals. This is only the second week of tracking these strains as new subvariants of interest in the LA County Early Alert Signals. Last week this indicator was at 17%.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) predicts that, for the week ending November 12, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 combined will account for about 45% of sequenced specimens nationwide and this prediction is the same for Region 9, which includes California plus Arizona, Hawaii, Nevada, and U.S. territories.
LA County continues to see steep increases in flu positivity, with rates significantly higher than expected for this point during the flu season. Also, RSV percent positivity is still extremely high, surpassing the peak rates seen over the previous four seasons.
Planning ahead and taking straightforward actions can reduce the risk of transmission at Thanksgiving and holiday gatherings. Public Health recommends masking and testing when traveling, testing before l gathering, particularly if gathering with those more vulnerable for serious illness, increasing ventilation by staying outdoors or, if indoors, opening windows and doors and using an air purifying system, and staying home if sick.
